Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 6.687243e-05 0.000080 0.000095 0.000111 0.000130 0.000150 0.000173
2025-02-16 5.303607e-05 0.000071 0.000092 0.000117 0.000147 0.000180 0.000220
2025-02-23 4.346212e-05 0.000063 0.000087 0.000117 0.000154 0.000196 0.000249
2025-03-02 3.385376e-05 0.000054 0.000079 0.000113 0.000155 0.000206 0.000271
2025-03-09 2.726410e-05 0.000047 0.000073 0.000110 0.000157 0.000215 0.000290
2025-03-16 2.269166e-05 0.000042 0.000070 0.000109 0.000162 0.000228 0.000313
2025-03-23 1.942351e-05 0.000039 0.000068 0.000110 0.000168 0.000241 0.000338
2025-03-30 1.618032e-05 0.000035 0.000065 0.000109 0.000171 0.000251 0.000359
2025-04-06 1.303899e-05 0.000031 0.000060 0.000106 0.000171 0.000257 0.000374
2025-04-13 1.128351e-05 0.000029 0.000059 0.000107 0.000177 0.000270 0.000399
2025-04-20 8.696953e-06 0.000025 0.000054 0.000103 0.000174 0.000272 0.000408
2025-04-27 7.249740e-06 0.000023 0.000052 0.000102 0.000178 0.000281 0.000428
2025-05-04 5.708693e-06 0.000021 0.000050 0.000101 0.000181 0.000291 0.000450
2025-05-11 5.038057e-06 0.000020 0.000050 0.000105 0.000191 0.000312 0.000487
2025-05-18 4.143331e-06 0.000018 0.000049 0.000106 0.000197 0.000327 0.000515
2025-05-25 2.915753e-06 0.000016 0.000045 0.000101 0.000194 0.000329 0.000527
2025-06-01 2.113685e-06 0.000014 0.000042 0.000099 0.000195 0.000336 0.000544
2025-06-08 1.590823e-06 0.000012 0.000040 0.000098 0.000198 0.000346 0.000567
2025-06-15 1.247464e-06 0.000011 0.000039 0.000099 0.000203 0.000359 0.000594
2025-06-22 8.925649e-07 0.000010 0.000038 0.000098 0.000205 0.000368 0.000615
2025-06-29 5.699605e-07 0.000009 0.000035 0.000096 0.000205 0.000372 0.000630
2025-07-06 4.241181e-07 0.000008 0.000035 0.000097 0.000210 0.000386 0.000658
2025-07-13 2.170291e-07 0.000007 0.000031 0.000092 0.000206 0.000386 0.000665